A still from the recent movie ‘San Andreas’ …probably a case of Hollywood getting a little overzealous. Photo: New Line Cinema
If you live in California, then you’ve probably heard people fearfully gabbing about the big one. In southern California, which rests on an active section of the San Andreas fault, residents are particularly wary. And according to scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a hefty quake could be coming in the near future.
The study calculates a 99.9% probability for a magnitude 5.0 (or much larger) earthquake to strike the greater Los Angeles area between April 1, 2015, and April 1, 2018. Specifically, the study pinpoints a 60-mile radius around the 5.1 quake that struck La Habra on March 28, 2014, which was powerful enough to knock people to the ground and destroy buildings beyond the point of occupation. And the report claims that this next one could be A LOT bigger.
Since the study’s publication, discussion surrounding it has focused primarily on the 99.9%, or in other words, the absolute certainty of a coming quake. But the lead author of it, scientist Andrea Donnellan, claims that’s not the point. Instead, the study’s main takeaway is that deeper levels of the earth didn’t move like the shallower ones during the La Habra quake and, eventually, that strain will need to be released.
Despite most major medias deeming this study as vetted certainty – Those geeks over at NASA? How could they be wrong? – critics have emerged from the sea of no-questions-asked believers. The U.S. Geological Survey released a counter statement, combatting the certainty of the study. “The 99.9% number – I don’t know the method that was used to derive that,” said USGS seismologist Robert Graves, via the L.A. Times. “But basically, that’s saying that’s going to happen. And that level of certainty, to my knowledge, is just not attainable. We can never be that certain.”
But still, the USGS maintains that there is an 85% chance of a large earthquake happening in the Los Angeles area in the next couple years. Though slightly smaller, those odds still aren’t great. Let’s just hope Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is around to save us.
