Photo: Denys Nevozhai / Unsplash
La Niña conditions are still in effect and expected to continue, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) most recent Climate Prediction Center El Niño/Souther Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion. The update was published on February 12, confirming that La Niña continued through January and adding its latest prediction to the mix: they expect a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral (neither La Niña or El Niño conditions) between now and April. They’ve given a 56 percent chance that those ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s June-August summer months.
The administration had stated back in September that it expected this La Niña event to be “weak” and brief. This season has more or less followed those expectations with the forecast of conditions transitioning in the near future and the sea surface temperatures required for La Niña conditions only slightly below ENSO-neutral.
“The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average…favor the onset of ENSO-neutral in February-April 2026. The team consensus also reflects this outcome, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2026,” wrote the organization. “In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60 percent chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56 percent chance in June-August 2026).”
The Climate Prediction Center also made a notable reference to what may come after this La Niña winter passes, acknowledging the potential for a flip from those ENSO-neutral conditions to another El Niño down the road.
“For the late summer and beyond, there is a 50-60 percent chance of El Niño forming, though model uncertainty remains considerable and forecasts made this time of year tend to have lower accuracy.”
A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026). A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO https://t.co/5zlzaZ1aZx pic.twitter.com/GtZedJtycH
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) February 12, 2026
