Recent forecast models suggest a strong storm system in the Southwest Pacific will produce extra large swell to Tahiti for the middle part of the week, before slowly easing through Thursday and into the latter half of the week. According to Surfline forecaster Kevin Wallis, the interaction between an intense low pressure system to the east of New Zealand, and strong high pressure over East Australia/Tasman Sea, has produced a strong swell that will build Tuesday afternoon and arrive and peak on Wednesday.
“We have seen satellite recorded wind speeds of 35-40 knots over a fairly broad fetch, with smaller pockets of wind up to 50 knots,” says Wallis. “While satellite verified sea heights have not been overly impressive, the primary reason for that is that we haven’t seen a good pass through the core of the storm. Based on wind data we still expect that seas in the 35-38 foot range have developed, and wouldn’t be surprised to see numbers as high as 40 feet if we can get one good pass through the storm in the next 12 hours.”
Perhaps more significant than its size and projected conditions is its close proximity in terms of swell production for Tahiti. “Forecast model guidance indicated the storm/fetch would be strongest around 1200-1500 miles from French Polynesia, said Wallis. “That has turned out to be more like 1800 miles away, but that is still closer than the average storm that creates XL swell/surf.”
While this swell will produce significant swell to Tahiti and the rest of French Polynesia, its remnants will most definitely be visible beyond the South Pacific. Despite being partially shadowed by French Polynesia and nearby offshore islands, the right spots in Hawaii and Southern California will see some waves. In regards to Southern California and the Vans US Open of Surfing, size will likely be in the waist- to chest-high range for better exposures, with shoulder- to head-high+ sets for top southwest exposed breaks.
Head on over to Surfline to receive new details on this developing swell.
