Could an El Nino be headed our way? Photo: NOAA
We’ve all been anxiously awaiting confirmation of the El Nino rumors that have been drifting around the past few months. With the warm water temperatures and pumping south swells Southern California experienced this summer, most people bet an El Nino year was a sure thing. However, September saw a steep decrease in the likelihood of El Nino, and our hopes sank.
Despite the September predictions, NOAA’s latest report indicates that the probability of an El Nino is creeping back up. The report observes that “positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean” signaling that “El Nino is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.” While the report is by no means certain, the probability of an El Nino has significantly increased over the last month (hovering between 60 and 65% likelihood). During the last four weeks equatorial SSTs remained above average throughout most of the Pacific – a strengthening sign of El Nino.
While El Nino is usually received with mixed reactions, this year it would undoubtedly be welcomed with open arms in drought plagued Southern California. After experiencing one of the driest years on record, California is in desperate need of the wetter conditions characteristic of an El Nino winter. Additionally surfers always celebrate the warm water and frequent swell patterns typical of an El Nino winter.
For now the wait for an El Nino confirmation continues. But at least we can enjoy the 70-degree water temps and fall combo swells while we wait!
For the latest up-to-date El Nino information and observations visit CPC.NOAA.gov
