This particular map, from 2016, shows one of the strongest El Ninos on record. Photo: NOAA
A new forecast provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) just proposed a lofty mark for this year’s El Niño. In fact, forecasters are outright saying this El Niño is likely to rank among the largest in recorded history, among other grand predictions in their latest monthly diagnostics report.
El Niño Is Already Intensifying
While forecasters have been monitoring the development of this current El Niño and predicting it could be a big one, NOAA only recently declared its official presence. That’s because El Niño and La Niña cycles don’t just flip like an on-and-off switch. Conditions can be present, but require three consecutive months of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (the Niño-3.4 region) warming by at least 0.5° C above average. The administration’s official declaration came just one month ago, and since then, they’ve already observed El Niño strengthening. Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +1.0°C across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
They now say this El Niño is expected to intensify through 2026.
Nearly Certain El Niño Will Last Into Spring
With the window of how long this El Niño strengthens being extended, so too is the overall window of it sticking around. Previous forecasts have leaned toward El Niño lasting through winter, which would put us into the early months of 2027. This month’s diagnostic analysis now has El Niño most likely lasting through spring 2027. Forecasters say it has a 97 percent chance of doing so — near certainty.
El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO https://t.co/5zlzaZ1aZx pic.twitter.com/ASC46wKOn4
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) July 9, 2026
A Historical El Niño
“There is an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December,” forecasters wrote this week. “That would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes.”
For clarification, there have been 28 El Niños since 1950. According to Golden Gate Weather Services, nine have been classified as “strong” (1957/1958, 1965/1966, 1972/1973, 1987/1988, 1991/1992, 2023/2024), and just three were “very strong,” like this one’s expected to be (1982/1983, 1997/1998, 2015/2016).
