
Every month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center releases their El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update. It’s a moment to check in and share their observations focused on the development, or potential for development, of El Niño and La Niña conditions near the equatorial Pacific. It’s been a long time since the presence or development of neither wasn’t taking up one of those monthly headlines, but alas, this month’s ENSO update predicts this winter will most likely remain ENSO-neutral — neither El Niño no La Niña to end 2025 and begin 2026.
An El Niño or La Niña winter can mean something totally different depending on where you live. La Niñas in the United States send East Coast surfers into a busier than usual hurricane watch, for example. And they got an active season in 2024, which saw 18 named storms in 2024 (winds of 39 mph or greater), according to the administration.
“Eleven of those were hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater) and five intensified to major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). Five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., with two storms making landfall as major hurricanes. The Atlantic seasonal activity fell within the predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in the 2024 August Hurricane Season Outlook,” they reported.
Both weather events bring expected impacts to seasonal weather and climate, allowing the Climate Prediction Center to more accurately forecast these kinds of seasons.
However, “ENSO-neutral doesn’t mean we expect upcoming seasonal rain, snow, and temperature to be close to average,” explains Emily Becker, who authors the CPC’s monthly blog. “Rather, during neutral, we don’t have the same predictive information that El Niño and La Niña’s atmospheric changes provide, making upcoming patterns harder to predict very far in advance.”
The odds of an El Niño winter are least likely this winter — about one-in-eight chance, they say. The likelihood of La Niña conditions do increase in the fall months, but they are still lower than the chances of conditions remaining ENSO-neutral through that period. We’re currently at the highest likelihood for ENSO-neutral conditions to persist through August (82 percent), with ENSO-neutral odds dropping to 48 percent in November through January.