Filipe Toledo was on fire last year, winning the most contests of any other surfer on tour. Expect a similar scenario this year. Photo: WSL
Two years ago, I stood dumbfounded at the water’s edge at the site of the 2014 Billabong Pipe Masters. Sopping wet from the rain and should-to-shoulder with several dozen screaming fans, I was hastily consumed and carried away by a crazed mob draped in green and yellow. This zealous gang was dying to be close to their just-crowned fellow countryman and first Brazilian world champion, Gabriel Medina. Flags waving, the crowd repeatedly thundered, “Me-di-na! Me-di-na!” It was absolute pandemonium.
The following year, albeit considerably less riotous, I made sure to keep a safe distance as de Souza pocketed his first world title. This year, I predict, will look very similar to that of 2014 and ‘15. Mark my words; the 2016 world title will stay in Brazil.
There’s a strong chance you think I’m off my damn rocker for thinking John John doesn’t have an honest shot. As noble a feat as the Eddie was, John John will make top five this year at absolute best. He has proved time and time again that he’s world title material, but, competitively, I don’t think he’s there quite yet. Don’t get me wrong, judges love his surfing, but his personal performance still isn’t all about pleasing judges. Additionally, winning contests often requires not-so-John-John-ish conduct, like paddle battling, exaggerating an interference, or other self-interested behavior that is behind-the-scenes frowned upon. He’s too modest and too prideful. His time will come, though. Nevertheless, this isn’t about John John. It’s about the Brazilians.
If you take into account the contests Mick Fanning and Owen Wright (finished 2nd and 5th respectively last year) are planning to compete in this year, winning a world title is mathematically impossible. Take them out as title contenders and you will see that four of the remaining top five (de Souza, Toledo, Medina, Wilson, Ferreira) heading into Snapper are Brazilian. That, folks, didn’t happen by coincidence or stroke of luck. The top five Brazilians, namely Medina, Toledo, and de Souza, are cold, hard competitors who have a real-life chance at the 2016 world title.
Gabriel Medina
Gabs has the best chance at taking back the title from Adriano. He knows what it takes to win and his gifted, versatile repertoire is precisely what is required from a world champion. He has the airs, he has the turns. He’s an absolute animal in big, barreling lefts and his backside attack is second to none. Not to mention his athleticism is perhaps the most robust on tour.
Filipe Toledo
Filipe has tasted blood and he’s coming back for the kill. He’s the best aerialist in the world at the moment and his rail game is damned near-perfect. He won more events last year than any other surfer on tour, and he will be damned if his big-wave nemesis gets the best of him again. Be on the lookout for Filipe at Fiji and Teahupo’o this year. He will be charging.
Adriano de Souza
Adriano is a real judge pleaser. He has taken the “three to the beach” heat advice and turned it into “15 to the beach.” He surfs every heat like the world title depends on it, and surfs every wave all the way to the bitter end. This is the focus and ferocity that carried him to victory last year, and it’s that same fiery determination that is required to win once more. He destroys big open faces, can handle bigger waves, and is no stranger to barrels—both backside and frontside.
