Editor’s Note: This piece was done in partnership with Surf Forecasting.
You’ve been tracking this swell since it came on the radar two weeks ago, and it looks like your home break is going to be perfect. After falling asleep with tomorrow’s forecast open on your phone, you wake up to find that the 12-foot-at-16-seconds swell is messy and inconsistent. Maybe the information was too general, and what was true for the region isn’t true for your specific area or surf break. Maybe the tide was too high or too low. Forecasters take in an immense amount of information including the current conditions, historical information, and theoretical models to give us, the lay public, an idea of what the future might look like. And sometimes, they’re just wrong.
Well, here’s a dirty little secret. Your home break, the spot that you surf more than anywhere else in the world – you know that spot better than anyone at Magicseaweed or Surfline HQ. But chances are you don’t have the background to turn that knowledge of your surf spot into a full-fledged prediction of what the waves are going to look like tomorrow.