Good waves make for good surf contests. It’s not that complicated of a recipe. And with the WSL transitioning to its first event in the new 2026 post-season format, the stakes are suddenly higher and every heat matters a little more. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like we’re going to get quality surf that matches the level of what’s at stake here: the final results that will determine this year’s world title.
Pre-event freesurfs don’t reveal much to fans about who will or won’t win. Everybody scores if it’s firing and the whole tour roster is getting their bearings while they score. Board selection is fine-tuned; maybe a surfer here or there uncovers something in the lineup that they’ll apply in a heat. But as far as outsiders are concerned, we don’t learn who’s going to excel and who’s going to struggle based on those sessions.
Well, this week’s freesurfs are without overhead, offshore conditions at Supertubos, and the event itself is shaping up to offer more of the same. A freesurf on Wednesday went down in relatively small surf — the kind of conditions that would be fun for the average Joe but ok, at best, for CT competition. There were a few nuggets, a couple of decent tubes that approached the head-high range, but most were smaller for names like Italo Ferreira, Gabriel Medina, Griffin Colapinto, Marco Mignot, Leonardo Fiorvanti, Yago Dora, and more.
As for the forecast, it looks slightly better. About a week before the contest window, Swellnet’s extended forecast saw potential for the event to run on alternating days.
“The first swell is due to arrive on the first day of the waiting period, the second late on the third day. Current numbers peg the first swell at around head high, the second a notch bigger,” they wrote. “Each swell will maintain through the following day as it slowly tapers. With 38 heats across men and women, the contest can be run and done in three days – even less if they push.”
The day one forecast is getting the most attention now that it’s almost here. A handful of athletes said they expect to run heats right away.
“The sand is amazing here at Supertubos. It’s really close to the shore this year,” said Miguel Pupo. “Gonna see some barrels and airs from everyone.”
