Winter Outlook
November, while it technically is part of fall, is when we transition seasons into the winter. Over the last few years, we have had some pretty decent NPAC storms forming up already. But remember that we have also been riding the edge of El Niño–either being slightly in an El Niño phase or just coming out of one. It has only been over the last 12-18 months that we have sat in what they call the ENSO-Neutral state, which is NOAA’s term for average.
I am not sure if you guys have felt it, but for the last several years, the seasons have seemed a little out of whack. The fall would be wet, or struggling through eddy conditions, while early season NPAC storms sprung up near the coast and peppered us with bad weather. The winter months would feel more like fall was supposed to, with nice weather and more offshore days, but it would come without the SPAC or tropical swell activity that we need so badly. To make winter seem even more off-track, the high-pressure that we would normally see in the fall, would form up in December and January and put the brakes on any significant WNW-NW storms. Those systems generally wouldn’t kick in until we had almost moved into springtime.
This is the first time in a while that it seems like things have settled back into their normal positions.
So while we haven’t quite got winter rolling yet, there is some good news on the horizon. Check out one of the new long-range forecast pressure charts. It shows the NE Pacific high settling back over the West Coast (where it normally sits during winter) and a low pressure starting to chew its way through the mid-latitudes. It isn’t a strong storm, but it does show a big shift in the overall weather pattern we have been experiencing.
I actually have a decent feeling about this winter season. If things end up following the more normal seasonal shifts that should occur this time of year, we will see the NPAC pick up relatively soon and stay pretty active. In fact, the way the current forecast charts are pulling together, it looks like we will see our first new winter swells heading our way for later this week, which will be followed by another as we move into early December.
