By extending his sailing sabbatical for another year, John John Florence will definitively miss out on the 2028 Olympics.
When ESPN first revealed that Florence would not return to the Championship Tour for the third year in a row, we thought there still could be a Hail Mary route for Florence to sneak into LA 2028 at the ISA World Surfing Games. However, after looking further into how USA Surfing selects its teams for Olympic qualifiers and new information on the dates of surfing’s final Olympic qualifier, it’s clear John John Florence has no pathway to LA.
Let’s break down why, by looking at the various qualification pathways: the Championship Tour, the World Surfing Games, and the Pan American Games.
The top of the qualification hierarchy is the WSL Championship Tour. Eight men and eight women — with a limit of one surfer per country — will earn a slot based on the CT events between August 15, 2027 and June 15, 2028. We won’t know how many CT events that includes until the 2027 and 2028 schedules are finalized, but it’s safe to say Florence will miss too many events in 2027 to be the highest-ranking American, even if he returns to the tour in 2028 and dominates.
So, what about the World Surfing Games?
The ISA’s first Olympic qualifier is currently taking place in Peru. It awards an Olympic slot to the highest-ranking men’s and women’s team that the winning country can fill as it pleases. This slot can also become an “extra” third slot if that country fills its two-surfer quota through other pathways. The 2027 World Surfing Games offers the same prize.
So, if USA were to win one of these “extra” slots, couldn’t they give it to Florence?
No.
USA Surfing has already determined how to allocate this slot if they win it. It will go to the highest-finishing surfer on the team that earned the slot. For 2026, that’s Cole Houshmand, Griffin Colapinto, and Crosby Colapinto for the men, and Carissa Moore, Gabriela Bryan, and Sawyer Lindblad for the women. If the surfer who performs best earns a slot through other pathways, then the slot goes to the next teammate in line.
In short, John John Florence is not on the 2026 team, so he’s not eligible. And he also won’t be on the 2027 team because USA Surfing has determined that the team will be formed based on the 2026 CT rankings. If CT surfers decline their spots, it rolls down to the Challenger Series rankings. Again, no options for Florence.
Surfers in the Americas can also go for a slot at the 2027 Pan American Games in Peru. But qualifying for the event requires competing in the World Surfing Games or PASA Games, which, again, Florence did not and will not compete in.
Finally, there’s the 2028 World Surfing Games, which awards seven slots to the highest-finishing men and women surfers. It looked like Florence’s last chance if he returns to the CT in 2028. However, today, the ISA confirmed to The Inertia that the 2028 World Surfing Games will take place in early 2028, before the CT season. Therefore, USA Surfing will use the 2027 Championship Tour rankings to select its team. Of course, John John Florence will be busy sailing and is not an option for selection.
The only hope for those who want to see Florence at LA 2028 is that he changes his mind. Would the WSL bend the wildcard application deadline if he has a change of heart? Maybe. But if he continues sailing around the world as he says he will, there’s no scenario where Florence is an Olympian in 2028.
