Something is brewing in the tropics. Photo: Surfline//screenshot
After a blazing run of south swells to kick off the Northern Hemisphere summer in the Pacific, the ocean has calmed down a bit. Surfers from Central America to Alaska have had time to catch their collective breath and return to typical summertime surf crafts. However, some distant rumblings in the tropics might bring that to an end soon.
Hurricanes are tricky to forecast far in advance. So don’t get too excited yet. But if you’ve been scrolling the long-range forecasts, you may have noticed models calling for some absurdly large surf in the coming weeks. That’s because several storms are brewing that could become the first hurricane of an Eastern Pacific season expected to be unusually active due to extreme El Niño conditions.
The National Hurricane Center is eyeing a zone offshore of southwest Mexico, saying there is a “70 percent chance of cyclone formation in seven days.”
“An area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico,” the latest update said. “Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward.”
Surfline’s forecasts are keeping a cautious eye on this development as well. Forecaster Schaler Perry wrote in his latest South Orange County long-range analysis that there’s a “steady signal” that tropical activity will kick up in the second half of July.
“We’re still three to five days out from being able to start talking specific surf potential, but there’s enough going our way I wouldn’t dismiss the chance for something quality,” he said.
If you look at the charts toward the end of the month, they show that another, potentially larger system could follow right behind the first one. Early indications predict these storms will stay offshore of the Baja Peninsula, which bodes well for surf production for Southern California.
The abnormally warm water caused by El Niño has historically been conducive for above-average hurricane seasons in the Eastern Pacific basin. NOAA gives it a 70 percent chance for an “above normal” season with nine to 14 named hurricanes.
