Teahupo’o saw some massive swell during the 2024 Olympics. It could be even bigger for the 2026 Tahiti Pro, but conditions are looking dicey. Photo: Beatriz Ryder//ISA
After six weeks of downtime, Championship Tour surfers will need to shake off the rust quickly to adapt to monster swells marching toward the WSL Tahiti Pro. Massive storms are brewing in the South Pacific Ocean, which local photographer Tim McKenna says could play out similarly to the notorious “Code Red” swell that slammed Tahiti in 2011 — a swell so big that it forced the CT event to go on hold.
The event window, which runs August 8-18, will commence with a strong pulse of waves accompanied by unruly winds. McKenna predicts that, similar to 2011, the event will have to wait for more tame conditions.
“For this event, solid south-southwest swell with strong winds and bad weather is expected for the first day of competition,” McKenna told The Inertia. “No doubt some of the bigger sets will go unridden, but the live show will be amazing despite the winds.”
“Sunday, August 27, 2011 saw the first “Code Red” swell in French Polynesia,” he continued. “The French local authorities shut down all recreational ocean and boat activities to limit the risk of accidents. The WSL event could not be insured for that day and was put on hold due to one of the biggest swells of the decade. For this event, Sunday, August 9 is looking very much like the same scenario. Maybe not as big, but I really can’t see how they will be able to get the judges safely on the tower and have a secure boat channel and willing paddle surfers with that much energy in the ocean.”
Once the 2011 Tahiti Pro waited out the brunt of the swell, Kelly Slater defeated Owen Wright in the final, en route to his 11th, and last, world title.
The back half of the 2026 event window should have more favorable winds, and still plenty of swell to remain entertaining.
“They will be able to resume at some stage Monday or Tuesday, but conditions still look solid — and actually better, wind- and weather-wise, for Wednesday and Thursday,” McKenna said. “Seven straight days of 10-foot-plus waves at Teahupo’o seems like a dream scenario for a live event, but this one is going to be a little hard to navigate due to the winds and strong peaks in the swells.”
The WSL’s technical team will have its hands full picking the correct windows for this one. As we saw during the 2024 Olympics, massive days at Teahupo’o can lead to varying conditions and a wide range of scores. Men’s round three at Paris 2024 had a window of massive, clean surf, with Gabriel Medina scoring a near-perfect 9.9-point ride.
