Medina still has plenty of qualification possibilities, but the pathway has narrowed. Photo: Pat Nolan//WSL
We are still two years out from surfing’s third Olympic appearance at the LA 2028 Games, but qualification scenarios are already unfolding. In fact, by winning the Trestles Pro last month, Miguel Pupo passed Gabriel Medina in the Championship Tour rankings and, in turn, reduced the three-time world champ’s possible pathways to the Olympics.
Let me explain.
The 2026 World Surfing Games, set to take place in Peru November 6-15, is the second Olympic qualification event. (Kanoa Igarashi and Mirai Ikeda won the Asian Games, the first qualifier.) It will award an Olympic slot to the highest-finishing men’s and women’s teams, which the winning country can fill however they please.
While the Olympics are capped at two surfers of each gender per country, that slot can become an “extra” third slot if that country fills their qualification slots through other events. This is how Gabriel Medina snuck into the 2024 Olympics after Brazil won the 2024 World Surfing Games.
According to a report by Brazilian surf journalist Ader Oliveira, Brazil’s national federation has released the criteria for how it will select its surfers for the World Surfing Games. It will use the Championship Tour ranking 30 days before the event starts, which is October 6. The top three male surfers to form Brazil’s squad, as per the current CT rankings, are Yago Dora, Italo Ferreira, and Miguel Pupo.
If Brazil wins the World Surfing Games Olympic slot this year, in theory, they could give it to anyone. But, in the report by Oliveira, the federation divulged that this slot is predetermined to go to surfers who competed in the event. Whoever is highest ranked on the CT during the Olympic qualification window between the 2027 and 2028 tours (August 15, 2027 to June 15, 2028) gets the slot. If that surfer has already qualified via their CT ranking, it goes to the next surfer in line.
Before Trestles, Medina was ranked fourth on the tour and was among the top three Brazilians to be named to the World Surfing Games team. But Medina lost his first heat at Trestles, and Pupo won the event, flipping their spots in the ranking and shuffling the Brazilian team for the Olympic qualifier.
It’s not to say that all hope is lost for Medina. He has other options. He can earn his slot by being the top-finishing Brazilian on the 2027-2028 CT, finishing top seven at the 2028 World Surfing Games, or winning the 2027 Pan American Games. Or, if for some reason, Dora, Ferreira, or Pupo decided not to surf in the World Surfing Games this year, Medina is next in line to take their spots. But mathematically, it’s one less pathway and a reduced possibility of seeing Medina at LA 2028.
However, if anyone can go against the odds, it’s Medina. He’s always found his way to the Olympics.
