Photo: climate.gov
We are fresh off a moderate La Niña winter and for the first time in a while the tropical Pacific is sitting in El Niño-Southern Oscillation-neutral (ENSO) conditions (a phase characterized by near-average sea surface temperatures. Neither El Niño or La Niña).
According to a brand new ENSO update blog from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, neutral conditions are expected to last through this 2025 northern hemisphere summer. The same is expected to extend into fall and winter as well, however, Emily Becker, who writes the monthly blog, explains that there’s an outside chance another La Niña could develop.
Out of the three climate possibilities — La Niña, El Niño, and neutral — forecasts give a 74 percent chance for ENSO-neutral conditions for the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer. Neutral is also the most likely outcome forecast for the winter, “although La Niña is a close second.” Meanwhile, they give odds of an El Niño winter just a 15 percent chance.
“El Niño and La Niña can be predicted many months in advance, so they provide an early picture of potential climate conditions and allow for preparation and planning,” Becker explains, adding that “the Niño-3.4 region was just 0.16 °C (0.3 °F) cooler” than the long-term average for April (long-term is currently 1991–2020), making it the second month in a row. When the equatorial Pacific region is warmer than average by 0.5 °Celsius (0.9 °F), we have El Niño conditions. La Niña occurs when temps are cooler than average by 0.5 C or more. The range between those two mark the ENSO-neutral territory we’re in now.
So, what does this all mean for weather patterns around the world? Beckers says La Niña and El Niño weather patterns tend to be predictable. Even though each can bring some pretty adverse weather conditions, forecasters tend to predict those far in advance. Climate patterns during neutral conditions, however, “are largely only predictable a few weeks in advance.”
“In their absence — that is, neutral conditions — other, less predictable weather and climate patterns can be more important,” she says.
Typically, for snow aficionados, La Niña can mean a more stormy winter in the norther part of the country, while El Niño often brings more snowy patterns to the southwestern U.S. Hawaii often sees larger surf during El Niño years.
As always, the odds will evolve with each month’s forecast, so we’ll be checking back with the administration’s June blog to see what, if anything, is brewing.
