From Carissa Moore’s resurgence to a dubious forecast, there’s a lot to talk about ahead of the Rio Pro. Photo: Thiago Diz//WSL
The Championship Tour is heading back to the biggest party of the year, where surf fandom penetrates society deeper than perhaps any other on Earth: Brazil. Saquarema is the sixth event of the year and, upon completion, will mark the halfway point of the new-look 2026 season. It’s the first beachbreak to host this year’s tour, and promises to bring about a more innovative, aerial style of surfing than the first five events that took place at reefs and points.
Here are six questions to ponder before competition gets underway this week.
Can Carissa Moore make it three in a row?
Carissa Moore has never won three Championship Tour events in a row. Technically, she did, if you combine the end of the 2014 season with the start of 2015, but Saquarema will be her first chance to do it in the same calendar year.
While she’s been painting herself as an underdog in her post-heat interviews, Moore’s competitors aren’t buying it. With back-to-back wins in New Zealand and El Salvador, she’s reasserted herself as the surfer to beat. The only mother on tour has climbed to second in the overall rankings.
Moore’s resurgence has suddenly become the season’s best storyline, akin to Michael Jordan’s return to basketball after his flirtation with baseball. A sixth world title for Moore this season would be impressive after taking two years off and giving birth.
Being a mother hasn’t stopped Moore from entering the title race. Photo: Oscar Jimenez//WSL
Is this the beginning of the end for Jordy Smith?
After missing El Salvador due to an unspecified injury, Jordy Smith is once again absent from the heat draw in Brazil. The 38-year-old turned back the clock last season with his third-place ranking, suggesting that he had more to offer in his two decades and counting on the Championship Tour.
However, with another event missed due to injury and several poor results, requalifying for the 2027 tour will be a challenge for Smith. Before El Salvador, he earned three 17th-places in a row. Each surfer gets to discard their worst three results, and Smith already has several that he would like to forget.
Unless he can return from injury and start logging results in the second half of the year to reach the top-22, this could be the last season Smith wears the competition lycra.
El Salvador boosted struggling surfers. Can they keep it up?
For many, El Salvador provided a spark of momentum. Leo Fioravanti nabbed his first-ever tour win (and first ever for an Italian). Al Cleland, Seth Moniz, Bella Kenworthy, and Brisa Hennessy all had breakthroughs with their first heat wins of the season. Cleland, Marco Mignot, Callum Robson, and Anat Lelior all made their first quarterfinals — glimmers of hope in what had generally been a frustrating season.
As many of those surfers still find themselves near the bottom of the rankings, they’ll continue to have tough matchups with the higher-ranking seeds. Getting rid of the non-elimination round this year has been brutal for some.
Rio will determine if El Salvador was a turning point in their seasons, or an anomaly.
What should we make of the forecast?
While there is still plenty of time for the long-range forecast to change, as it stands, it looks like the event will begin and end with swells, with several flat-as-a-lake days in the middle.
The event will open with a large swell — nearly nine feet at 14 seconds with mostly offshore winds. Saquarema can handle fairly big swells, and there is always the backup location of Barrinha down the beach if the WSL deems the right-hander looks better.
But after fireworks on Friday, the swell will taper off on Saturday and head into a flat spell for four days. Current models predict a new, moderate swell will filter in for the final three days of the period, the 25th through 27th.
While the WSL had its pick of windows during a string of south swells in El Salvador, Saquarema doesn’t look like it will give them such luxury. They’ll have to run when it’s contestable. Don’t be surprised if some heats have suboptimal conditions.
Tatiana Weston-Webb makes it two mothers in the Rio Pro. Photo: Thiago Diz//WSL
How will Tatiana Weston-Webb perform as a mom?
Not since Lisa Andersen in the ’90s have we seen mothers return to the tour and, not only compete, but win events (Moore, 2026) – which makes Andersen’s four world titles after her first child all the more impressive. Tatiana Weston-Webb received a wildcard into the event in her first CT appearance as a mother of a four-month-old daughter.
While she’s earned a few semifinal appearances, Weston-Webb has yet to win the Rio Pro. She has the chance to make the local crowd go nuts if she wins it as a wildcard with her daughter on the beach.
Can women’s youth gain some ground?
The biggest storyline of the women’s 2026 tour has been the resurgence of the veterans. Carissa Moore, Stephanie Gilmore, and Lakey Peterson have all won events. Tyler Wright is coming off a finals appearance. It was supposed to be the year when they handed the keys over to the women’s youth movement. But that has not happened.
However, the beachbreak conditions at Saquarema and a tricky forecast could favor the young light-footed aerialists. Molly Picklum is the reigning champ of the Rio Pro, and Caity Simmers won the previous two editions before that. If there is a chance for them, and others like Caroline Marks and Erin Brooks, to climb up the rankings, Saquarema is it.
