Naturally, this year’s world champion will most likely come from last year’s top 12, which we previewed in the first installment of The Definitive WSL Surfer Breakdown. But Medina began last season outside of the top 12. While we can safely write off some of the next 22 surfers, each of them will factor into the title race in one way or another. A few of them have the talent to actually be in the title race.
Photo: Red Bull
Nat Young
It makes sense that Nat Young made it to a semifinal in just the second event of his rookie season, and it made sense that it happened at Bells Beach, where the sloping right handers resemble many waves in his hometown of Santa Cruz. But that was in 2013, his detractors like to point out, and he hasn’t shown much lately. His backhand stabs look the same as they did then, and while his peers have all progressed greatly, Nat’s surfing seems to stay more or less the same.
Is that claim valid? Yes and no. While his results plummeted during the back half of 2014—he did not pass the third round after Fiji—he was eliminated by under a point in three of those events. His AHM (Average Heat Margin) of +0.67 was 11th-best on the tour, suggesting that he surfed mildly better than his final ranking would indicate. And he made it to the final series (quarters or better) at Margaret River, Barra de Tijuca and Fiji, three wildly different settings. He has the tools to win anywhere.
Yet he was eliminated twice in Round 3 by Fred Patacchia, in open-faced rights—Bells and J-Bay—which should worry Nat. Maybe the judges are actually getting tired of three vertical through-the-lip snaps. Maybe it’s time to start taking a few more risks.
Nat can perform in any surf and he won’t make the stupid mistakes that many of the 2015 rookie class will. He won’t fall off of tour after 2015, but it says something that he might end the year closer to the cutoff line than the top.
Photo: Red Bull
Julian Wilson
By AHM, Wilson was the 2014 World Tour’s unluckiest surfer. His average heat ended in a 1.14-point victory. Look a little closer, and you’ll see that this has a lot to do with winning the Pipeline Masters, where 16-to-2 heat finishes were not uncommon. In fact, large differences in heat scores occur much more frequently in waves that lead the judges to reward surfers heavily for the tube and not much else; in 2014, those events were unsurprisingly Teahupoo and Pipe (and France and Portugal, sort of). Surfers that went far in those events have slightly inflated AHMs.
But who can blame the judges for rewarding barrels? Or blame Julian for winning Pipe? And, really, if the purpose of the AHM stat is to gain a different perspective on a surfer’s performance, it makes sense that surfers who earned two excellent scores while their competitors groveled should be given a boost. Last year, Julian was one of those surfers. His victory at Pipe capped a nice little narrative for the Aussie: after going down three separate times to Kolohe Andino in Round 3 last season, Julian won his fourth third-round matchup en route to claiming the contest.
Much like Josh Kerr a few years ago, Julian seems to be figuring out how to turn his ability to go radical into competitive success. Like Kerr, his bursts of brilliance have been few and far between, and he came into Hawaii very close to elimination. But after he won in almost-legitimate Pipeline and Backdoor, his fan base probably isn’t so worried about Julian’s career. It is possible that he figured out how to put it all together. It’s also possible, though, that his victory at Pipeline taught him all the wrong lessons and he’ll start 2015 none the wiser. Kerr hopped on and off of tour before he figured out how to win; we have yet to see if Wilson will require a similar education.
Photo: World Surf League
Adrian Buchan
Ace only made it out of Round 3 three times in 2014, but when he did, he made it count. He won two Round 4 heats and made it to the semifinals at Trestles and Pipeline. His performance in Hawaii and at Teahupoo, where he tallied a quarterfinal finish, solidified his reputation as a fearless charger in heavy left barrels.
Ace’s surfing is unspectacular but solid, and one gets the sense that his intelligence, and little else, separates him from the legions of surfers eliminated at years’ end while Ace keeps his head above water.
There’s a valid argument for drastically reducing the number of surfers on the World Tour to, say, 16. Contests could finish in one complete day, and some of the fat could be trimmed from the tour. However, surfers like Ace, who would most likely not be part of the leaner, meaner tour, make a good argument for keeping it at its current size. Why? When the waves are at their most breathtaking, Buchan’s at his best. Top-5 surfers don’t want to face Ace when the waves are heavy. That should be enough to silence the haters.
Photo: World Surf League/Kirstin Scholtz
Bede Durbidge
Durbidge’s AHM of +0.31 was good enough for 13th on the tour last year, slightly better than his 16th-place finish for the year. Nearly a full season’s worth of disappointing results were thrown on the back of two semifinal finishes at Margaret River and Tahiti and a quarterfinal finish in Rio.
Predicting Bede’s competitive success in 2015 is more difficult than predicting many of his peers’. For a four-year period (’07-’10), he truly was in the most elite group of competitive surfers in the world, never finishing below sixth and taking a runner-up finish in 2008. Since then, he has finished no better than 16th. What gives, Bede?
A surfer with so much competitive savvy and such potent forehand hacks should manage to avoid elimination for at least another year. On the same note, there are very few examples of great surfers declining sharply, sustaining mediocrity, and then returning to dominance. Can he show us anything new? Can he trust us to remember that yes, he truly was one of the best?
Photo: World Surf League
Filipe Toledo
Filipe Toledo seems like he’s still struggling to figure out where he fits on the CT. Signs of hope have been tempered by discouraging defeats. His two best results came in the final two events of the year, but it’s difficult to say what that means. And they were both just quarterfinal finishes anyway. On the WQS he had an amazing season, winning the US Open and the SP Prime mostly on the strength of his air game.
Although he won the first event of this year, he’s still got a long road. To improve on the CT in 2015, Toledo should look to Round 4, where he went 0-5. He lost three of those three-man heats by less than a point, so it’s not as though he’s not trying. But if he wants an opportunity to bust out his aerial game—as of now, the only area where he truly has an edge over most competitors—Round 4 is the perfect opportunity. There, any display of uniqueness might be rewarded by a judging panel that has one more surfer than usual to evaluate.
Photo: World Surf League/Masurel
Kai Otton
As the year concludes, it’s common to see surfers meet each other in the early rounds at two or even three events in a row. Kai Otton met Taj Burrow in Round 3 at Trestles and both European events in 2014. In the first two, Taj eliminated Kai. In Portugal, Otton overcame Burrow—and went on to a 3rd-place finish.
He absolutely destroyed Taj in their heat in Portugal (he won by over 12 points!), and while that’s good, it reminds us that Kai has typically needed a spark to surf his best. His good results come in strings, and so do his bad ones. Still, he does a good job getting out of Round 2—he placed 25th just once in 2014—so he’s still able to create the opportunities for himself to win, even if he can’t always make the most of them.
Photo: Red Bull
Miguel Pupo
A promising start to the year gave way to consistent mediocrity for Miguel Pupo, and he managed to requalify despite making it through round 3 just four times. His year-end 19th matched last year’s finish. He finished 17th the year before, meaning Pupo has hung onto his tour spot by his fingernails three years in a row. It’s been working for him, but dancing on the bottom edge of the CT is a dangerous activity.
Photo: World Surf League
Sebastian Zietz
Hawaiian surf fans found much of Sebastian’s 2014 campaign to be bittersweet, as he was eliminated three times by fellow islander John John Florence. He got him back in Brazil en route to a quarterfinal finish, his best of the year. It was one only of two times he made it out of Round 3. He made the cut, if just barely.
But Hawaiians do not want to do better in Brazilian beachbreaks than any other location on tour, and Zietz enters each event believing he can exceed a 5th place result. The question with Sebastian is not whether or not he will win a World Title—he won’t—but whether or not the Triple Crown win that vaulted him onto the circuit will be the highlight of his still-young career.
Photo: World Surf League
Fred Patacchia, Jr.
Did anyone have more reason to be pissed off at the judges than Freddy P? He was eliminated by less than a point in each of his first five events. It happened again at Teahupoo before Freddy gave in to the judges’ assessment of his surfing, losing by more significant margins as the year progressed. All in all, he finished where he often has in years past: right above the cutoff line.
Will 2015 be a breakthrough year for Freddy P? Will he be more than the gritty loudmouth who no one wants to draw in heavy surf? When surfing his best, Patacchia has demonstrated a devastating forehand carve as well as the ability to throw buckets on his backhand. He hasn’t shown much of an air game, but the gap between his place on the World Tour and, say, Adriano de Souza’s isn’t an air game. It’s the mental wherewithal required to surf through the frustration that hits every competitor at some point during the year.
Photo: World Surf League
Jadson Andre
Jadson Andre had a really horrible year punctuated by a semifinal finish in France that saw him defeat….well, he beat Filipe Toledo, Miguel Pupo, and an out-of-sync Jordy Smith in the final series, so he got a little lucky with the heat draw. Nevertheless, he continued his success at his next competitive event, the Caiscais 6-star, which he won, thereby requalifying via the QS before even setting foot in Hawaii. His next two CT performances both ended in the third round. His finish in France was enough to allow him to squeak by in 22nd place, and it opened the door for Ricardo Christie to hop on the World Tour next year.
Andre has not yet finished higher than he did in his rookie year (when he finished 13th) and has finished 22nd on at year’s end a remarkable three times. Along with Miguel and Filipe, Jadson seems to be content with holding Medina’s Brazilian bridal train on the CT.
Photo: World Surf League
Adam Melling
Melling’s greatest moment of 2014 came in Hawaii, when he emerged from a cavernous Backdoor barrel to take a Round 1 win from Kelly Slater in his heat’s dying seconds.
He then lost in the next round he surfed, but did enough work on the QS to gain entrance onto this year’s World Tour. In fact, though he’s surfed six full years on the CT, he’s never finished higher than 23rd. There are two ways of looking at this. You can write him off, say his surfing’s boring, and dismiss him—or you can appreciate the fact that Adam Melling is a warrior. By now, he can’t have any false perceptions of his own surfing: he’s simply not as talented as the elite guys on tour. But if he can take a few highly-seeded scalps each year, work his butt off on the QS, and do the circuit, aren’t you still a little jealous of the life he lives?
Photo: World Surf League
Brett Simpson
The Hurley #TourNotes version of Kelly’s Portuguese 540 features Brett Simpson describing his perspective on Kelly’s ride, after which he folds his arms and, joking around, says, “I was part of the super session.” A few days later, he got as close to the spotlight as he had all year, knocking Medina out in Round 3 and sending the World Title decision to Pipeline.
Unfortunately for Brett, he has been a spectator more than a star so far on the CT, never finishing a year higher than 19th. In 2014, he only won heats in two events—Portugal and Fiji—but he scraped together a 9th place both times. His AHM of -2.8 was by far the lowest of any surfer with membership on the 2014 and ’15 World Tours. But he did the grunt work and will squeak through as the 31st-ranked competitor to start the year off. Given his past—and the uphill battle low seeds face—it seems a stretch to bet he’ll do much damage in 2015.
Photo: World Surf League
C.J. Hobgood
Underneath his pleasant interview demeanor, doesn’t it seem like there’s an angry man inside CJ? He’d have good reason to be angry after 2015, his worst year ever on tour. Injury relegated him to a 25th in the last two events, and in the South Pacific lefts that he’s rightly known for dominating in, he received a 13th and a 25th. Granted, he lost at Teahupoo due to a tiebreak, but it seems unlikely that does anything to ease Hobgood’s pain.
He’s not young anymore, but Hobgood’s 2014 season still seemed out of character, and it will be good to see him on tour as the first wild card. It should actually encourage CJ that his best two results came at Snapper and J-Bay, where no one would pick him to succeed. You’ll be saying his name more frequently in 2015.
Photo: World Surf League
Matt Wilkinson
Another warrior who did his homework, Wilko requalified for the tour by finishing respectably in a few QS events throughout the year. He has developed a reputation for heedlessly throwing himself over absolutely any ledge, and despite a lackluster 13th in Teahupoo last year, he was one of that event’s most entertaining surfers. If he can start making one of those tubes every now and then, he’ll be a top candidate for the AI award.
His best finish was a 3rd place in Jeffrey’s Bay. While Wilko’s demeanor makes it tough to criticize anything about him, even his performance in South Africa seemed a little repetitive and stale. Backhand hook after backhand hook—no matter how well-executed—shouldn’t do the job on the World Tour. He’s got so much style, but can Matt Wilkinson find the substance he sorely lacks?
Photo: World Surf League
Jeremy Flores
Jeremy’s fall from grace this year was not as wholly unprecedented as many of the announcers would have you believe, seeing as he finished 25th in 2009. He followed that year up with a top-10 finish and a Pipe Masters victory, so we know he has the capability to rebound.
While it would be easy to label Jeremy an emotional surfer who needs his blood to run hot in order to perform well, his finals finish in the Reef Hawaiian Pro suggests a mental fortitude at odds with his displays of bratty behavior. We have good reason to speculate that his low ranking would have been helped had he not been suspended for the Billabong Pro Tahiti, where he has racked up multiple quarterfinal finishes or better. For 2015, he probably won’t stay stuck so low.
Photo: World Surf League
Glenn Hall
Glenn Hall will be appearing on the 2015 tour as the lowest-seeded surfer—he’s effectively 34th—not granted access to the event as a local or sponsor wildcard. His poor surfing thus far has been excused by the pro surfing community due to the injury he suffered during the massive swell that hit the 2013 Volcom Fiji Pro.
Irish surf fans should hope that’s the case, as Glenn will have no excuses in 2015. His 2014 World Tour performances, especially in heavier surf, have done little to inspire hope thus far. He looked overmatched during the ’14 Triple Crown, a year and a half after his injury, as well.
Photo: World Surf League
Matt Banting
Banting is young, and he dominated the 2014 WQS with a fins-free effortless style that makes 2-foot surf look like fun. Intuitively, you’d have to expect him to falter a bit in the big league’s bigger, more powerful waves.
At the same time, it’s not like the CT runs most of its heats in pristine conditions, especially in the second round, where Banting should be surfing some crucial heats this upcoming season. He’s young, so as long as he can weather his first few punches and adapt on his feet, there’s no reason his competitive prowess won’t translate. It will take time and a few extra pounds of muscle on his frame, though. He might have to do another QS season or two before he finds his place.
Photo: World Surf League
Wiggolly Dantas
When Dantas is at his best, he has a smooth and relentless forehand style reminiscent of Joel Parkinson. Of course, he’s a goofyfoot, which puts him at a disadvantage to start the year. He’ll was a low seed at Snapper, and will be at Bells and Margaret River, so even if he surfs well, some top-seed magic may very well bury him.
Wiggolly has been a QS warrior for a long time. A win at the Saquarema Prime pushed him over the top this year, but it’s not reasonable to expect that his surfing is much better than it was during the many years he didn’t make the CT. Despite his reputation for charging in heavy waves, it would be a surprise to see him top out any higher than the mid-teens.
Photo: World Surf League
Italo Ferreira
I’ll only use the first person singular while discussing Italo Ferreira, if only because the most interesting stuff I can say about him is anecdotal. I was on a surf trip last year with a guy who had been in Central America filming a session with Filipe Toledo, Gabriel Medina and Italo Ferreira. “Toledo seemed a bit intimidated, and Medina was amazing, of course,” he told me, “but Italo Ferreira went off. He’s going to be on the CT soon, if not next year, and he’s dangerous.”
Look, it was one freesurf session, so I take that with a grain of salt. There’s a good chance Ferreira’s ceiling is the same as Jadson Andre’s, Miguel Pupo’s and Toledo’s: low teens, a few final series per year. But he consistently wins heats and he occasionally flashes something unbelievable. And he’s young. So who knows? Maybe one of Medina’s next great challengers will come from his own country.
Photo: World Surf League
Keanu Asing
Round 3, Heat 1 of the World Cup of Surfing. The ocean is slow. Keanu Asing paddles to the inside and strokes into a little drainer that tubes him across the inside reef. The judges, who presumably knew that Sunset would pump in a few hours, only give him a 4.17, but it’s the second-highest score in a heat that Keanu wins with a total of 7.77. He’s the only surfer to catch two or more waves.
Keanu’s results on the QS over the past three years read like a playbook on how to improve as a competitive surfer. He’s not above winning in crap surf, and he treats every heat with the same coldly strategic resolve. Of all the rookies, Keanu seems the most predictable, which isn’t a bad thing. It seems unlikely that he will make a huge jump in performance in 2015, but it seems equally unlikely that his upward track will be halted. Don’t expect him to win any events, but he should make it through a good number of heats based on his tactical ability alone. He’s the kind of surfer that keeps getting better. In a few years, he might be good enough to scare Medina or Florence. For now, he should scare anyone that he might bump off tour.
Photo: World Surf League
Dusty Payne
The surf world is pretty high on Dusty Payne right now, and it’s difficult to find fault with that. He looked like an animal during the first two events of the Triple Crown, displaying a full bag of (forehand) tricks. Michel Bourez’s two monster waves in the final at Sunset certainly deserved the win, but Dusty Payne gave one of the best North Shore performances ever by someone who didn’t win the Triple Crown.
Requalification in a year when his best result pre-Triple Crown netted him just 844 points is a sweet consolation prize, though, and I bet his buddy Ezekiel Lau’s eyes are turning green with envy.
But let’s all pump the brakes before predicting CT success for Dusty. For all his talk about getting in shape following a rash of injuries, the fact remains that oft-injured athletes in any sport find it difficult to stay healthy. And even if he does stay healthy, his past gives us little reason to believe that he can consistently surf to his potential. He has a patchy performance history at Pipeline, but we should still look for everyone to tell us that he grew up on Hawaii, so his performance in left barrels is superb. The truth: Dusty Payne is an unproven competitor, and it will be a surprise if he’s not on the bubble when the Triple Crown rolls around again.
Photo: World Surf League
Ricardo Christie
Christie got big results when he needed it most, and his 9th at Sunset was just enough to sneak onto the World Tour for 2015. He’s got the sort of stylish carve and flow driven surfing that gets more style points than anything else. It will be interesting to see how his surfing looks next to, say, Jordy’s; when Christie finds his groove, the two murder waves in similar fashion. The Kiwi, of course, has many nautical miles to cover before his surfing truly stacks up to Smith’s.
