Is it her time? Photo: Aaron Hughes//World Surf League
I view the 2024 WSL Finals as an inflection point: the start of the Caity Simmers era. With Carissa Moore stepping away from the tour and 37-year-old Steph Gilmore having been away from competition for a year, Caity Simmers has a realistic runway to start stuffing her trophy shelf with world titles.
Of course, Caroline Marks may want to have a word with me, but Simmers’ surfing is flat-out electric. She’s the most well-rounded surfer on the women’s tour, no questions asked. Before the 2024 season started, I posed the question of who would fill the power void in the absence of Moore and Gilmore. I (not-so-boldly) predicted it would be the 18-year-old Simmers to step up to the occasion, win the world title, and become the consensus best woman on tour. The first part has already come true, while the next two points could come to fruition this week.
With the top seed heading into the finals, Simmers is certainly in the driver’s seat to become the first Californian to win a world title since Tom Curren in 1990 (yup, it’s been a 34-year drought). And the thing about Simmers is that it really doesn’t matter what the forecast looks like. Her Lower Trestles performance surfing is just as strong against her peers as is her Pipeline tube-riding. There is a strong batch of challengers in Molly Picklum, Tatiana Weston-Webb, Brisa Hennessy, and Marks, but let’s not kid ourselves. The title is Simmers’ to lose.
And speaking of the forecast, it has been the talk of the town. I’ve spent the summer in the devastatingly wave-deprived reefs of Santa Cruz and I cannot recall such a dismal run of surf in recent memory. Many Californians – from north to south – have been throwing around superlatives like “worst summer ever” and the Finals forecast is fairly on brand.
Looking at the forecast through the end of the event window, September 6-14, there isn’t much to get excited about. Many are already speculating that the event will run the first day possible as Surfline is calling for 3-4+ feet. Friday’s south-southwest swell of 2.8 feet at 14 seconds looks like the best California’s most trafficked cobblestone point will offer. The rest of the window appears to be smaller.
The passionate surf fans/trolls who have been complaining about ending the year at Lowers will have plenty of ammunition to keep their keyboards warm. We’ll likely see some heats decided by waist-high waves.
While the conditions shouldn’t phase Simmers, over on the men’s side of the draw, everyone is wondering if John John can get world title number three in the small surf. He’s certainly capable of it, but the opposition is going to be brutal. There’s the hometown hero Griffin Colapinto who will have every San Clemente grom on an e-bike causing a ruckus on the sand. There’s the aerial antics of Italo Ferreira that – when he’s on – is essentially impossible to overcome. Then there’s the all-around greatness of Jack Robinson and the buttery carves of Ethan Ewing. For the men, it’s a toss-up.
It would be shameful to see John John relinquish his 3,000-point lead, but the stars are aligning to make such a scenario unfold. To thicken the plot, there has been swirling speculation that he might hang ‘em up after this season. I’m pulling for John John to prove his small-wave non-believers wrong and bring this title home. He deserves it, whether or not this is his last hurrah.
If the top seeds take it, 2024 could be a uniquely defining year. Think about it. Caity Simmers wins her first of…4 or 5?… titles, while John John earns his last and potentially goes off in search of perfect waves instead of a life on tour. Or maybe he doesn’t win the title and leaves the Final 5-formatted tour due to disinterest. There are several interesting threads to follow there.
Something else that’s on my mind: If the forecast is as lackluster as it appears, how does that affect Lowers’ status on the tour and…drum roll…the Olympics? I can’t imagine they would remove California ocean surfing from the CT, but would a poor showing from Mother Nature sway the organizers at LA 2028 about where to hold Olympic surfing? Maybe. I’ve already said I don’t want an Olympic wave pool, but my opinion means diddly-squat.
Lastly, can we get a repeat of Mick Fanning and Kelly Slater in the booth for finals day? I genuinely enjoyed their combined surf genius last time they took over the broadcast. Anyway, I’m secretly hoping they don’t run on Friday because I’ve got a terribly-timed DMV appointment. But if they do, I’ll be watching the potential dawn of the Caity Simmers era remotely via smartphone as I fill out paperwork – the moment that could make California surfing great again.
