The first major swell of the North Pacific season is currently marching across the Pacific towards the U.S. West Coast. And this is no ordinary first swell — it could light up California’s premier big-wave spot, Maverick’s, with mountains of water as tall as eight-story buildings.
Surfline’s models show the swell building Friday night and peaking Saturday morning at 18 feet with a 19-second period. In a vacuum, that could mean one of the best days at Maverick’s in years. But pesky winds and high tides — exacerbated by even higher sea levels due to Super El Niño Kelvin waves — will accompany the swell.
Even though conditions look atrocious today at Maverick’s, there could be a window on Saturday. Northern California’s best big wave surfers, such as Santa Cruz’s John Mel, are preparing for the swell in case the stars align. We got Mel on the phone to hear his thoughts on the impending Maverick’s big-wave session.
What’s your take on the forecast? Do you think there’s going to be a window of decent wind in the morning?
Yeah. (The forecast) looks pretty nice again right now, but it has been changing a lot, kind of nonstop. Every few hours I’ve been looking at it. Yesterday morning I woke up and it was looking like it was going to be light offshore for a moment, and I was like, ‘Holy sh%t, this is going to be insane.’ Then in the afternoon, it changed, looking like it was going to be west wind all day long, 10 knots, then kind of blasting offshore in the afternoon. So the wind has been changing, but what hasn’t changed is how big it’s going to be. It looks maybe a hair smaller than that December 2024 swell, but that’s what’s making me feel like it’s for sure going to be huge. Now the forecast looks better in the morning again. So I guess we’ll see when the day actually comes.
Are you driving up at dawn on Saturday regardless?
Yeah, pretty much. That’s always our program. We get there at the crack (of dawn) and drive out. We’ll be out there right as the sun’s coming up, just to see what’s going on. We’ll hang out all day and wait for our window if we have to, or just get straight into it.
Do you think it’s going to be more towing or paddling?
There’s definitely going to be more towing going on. But I’d be really stoked to get a paddle window if possible. I just think it’d be cool to paddle into one of those extra outer reef ones and try and paddle into the biggest wave of my life. That’s a goal that I have for tomorrow. I’ve had a lot of these tow swells at this point where I’ve got cool waves, but I haven’t really had a chance to paddle into a really big one. I definitely would love to do that, but I’d also be stoked to tow all day. I’m going to bring everything I got, be ready for what’s on offer, and go enjoy it. The main thing for me is it’s just cool to see Maverick’s at that size. There’s no place like it. Seeing all that energy harnessing into one spot like that is the craziest stuff ever. So I’m just excited for that. Hopefully I’ll paddle into maybe one sick one, then just ride some waves and get everyone home safe at the end of the day. That’s the main goal: get home safe.
What boards are you bringing?
I got a brand new 9’10’’ Mavs gun, and then I’m gonna bring a 9’6’’ Mavs gun. All my boards are Channel Islands. That 9’6’’ is a board I’ve had since 2020. I’ve got a lot of my best days on it, so it’s really reliable. But then I’m also going to bring that bigger 9’10’’ just in case I want to try and get in a little early. And then I’m going to bring a super old tow board that was my dad’s back in the day. And then I have another brand new CI tow board. So backups on backups — covering all the bases for whatever’s on offer.
Given the conditions are iffy, do you think it’s going to be mostly a locals session tomorrow if it turns on? Or are people traveling to California now?
I think there’s gonna be some out-of-towners. I’ve already heard some whispers of a bunch of Hawaii crew coming over. When it’s looking this big, a lot of people turn up. The local crew will definitely be holding it down. All the boys will be out there, and we’ll be on the bombs. But yeah, I think a couple other people will turn up. It’s going to be so big. People don’t want to miss the opportunity.
How big are you thinking?
That’s a good question. Definitely, maybe some 60-foot faces, 80-foot faces the biggest. Yeah, I don’t know. Pretty solid.
