Part of the motive behind World Surf League’s revamped 2026 Championship Tour format was to increase the importance of surfing well at Pipeline. By weighting the event 1.5 times more than the rest (15,000 points for the winner, instead of 10,000), more surfers could remain in the title hunt until the final heats of the season. Gone are the drama-less days of winning the title before the tour’s final event.
However, the 2026 title is so close that it would have been among the closest ever even without the bonus points at Pipe. Yago Dora and Gabriel Medina are neck-and-neck in the men’s title race, while Molly Picklum and Carissa Moore are separated by less than 600 points in the women’s race.
The Instagram page Surf Stats pulled men’s CT data from 1995 to 2019 (omitting the Final 5 seasons) and women’s data from 2008 to 2019, concluding that 2026 is the fifth-closest men’s race within that window, while the women are engaged in the closest race.
“We measured the gap between 1st and 2nd at the end of each season, as a share of the champion’s points,” Surf Stats wrote. “Right now, with Pipe to go: Yago Dora leads Gabriel Medina by 3.17 percent, which would be the 5th closest men’s finish. Molly Picklum leads Carissa Moore by 1.01 percent, closer than any women’s title on the list.”
Men’s Championship Tour races in that timeframe that were closer were Mick Fanning and Kelly Slater in 2013; Slater and Mick Campbell in 1998; and Slater and Andy Irons in 2005. Close women’s races included Tyler Wright and Steph Gilmore in 2014 and 2017.
There are still six men and seven women who can mathematically win the title. We broke down what each needs to win here. Heading into Pipeline, everything points to world titles that could come down to the season’s final heat.
