Four surfers can control their destiny at Pipeline. Regardless of what other surfers do, Yago Dora, Gabriel Medina, Molly Picklum, and Carissa Moore can take home the title if they win at Pipeline. For everyone else, winning a title depends on others’ performances.
Pipeline carries 1.5 times the weight compared to the other tour events. The winners get 15,000 points. As a result, more surfers are in the title mix compared to the pre-Final 5 era when all events were valued the same.
So we put on our statistician hats, opened a spreadsheet, and broke down the scenarios that could play out at Pipeline. It’s worth noting that the WSL’s rankings currently factor in two throwaway scores, but the final totals will throw away the three lowest results — another wrinkle in the calculations.
Here is how the top seven men and women could win the title.
Men
Yago Dora
- Dora wins the title with a win at Pipeline.
- A runner-up finish also guarantees him the title as long as the winner is not Gabriel Medina.
- If he loses in the semis (third), he wins the title if Medina gets fifth and Italo gets second.
Gabriel Medina
- Medina wins the title with a win at Pipe.
- He can win the title with a second place as long as Dora doesn’t win.
- He can win the title with a third place as long as Dora doesn’t make the final.
- Note that Medina still has a score of 1,000 points to throwaway, versus Dora’s next throwaway of 3,320 points. That’s why, even though Dora is currently in the lead, if both surfers get third, Medina will have more points than Dora.
Italo Ferreira
- Ferreira can win the title with a win as long as Dora gets third and Medina gets fifth.
- He can win with a second place if Dora and Medina finish ninth.
Griffin Colapinto
- Colapinto clinches the title with a win as long as Dora and Medina finish fifth.
Miguel Pupo
- Pupo wins the title with a win at Pipeline as long as Dora and Medina finish ninth.
Leo Fioravanti
- It’s been a steep drop-off for Fioravanti over the last few events. But he can still win the title with a win at Pipeline as long as Dora and Medina finish ninth, and Ferreira finishes third.
Ethan Ewing
- It’s a long shot for Ewing, but if he wins Pipe, he’d win the title as long as Medina and Dora finish 17th, and Ferreira and Colapinto finish third.
Women
Molly Picklum
- As the rankings leader, with a win at Pipeline, Picklum clinches the title.
- It’s worth noting that Picklum has no terrible scores to throw away, which could work against her. If she has a good showing at Pipeline, she will throw away a fifth-place finish worth 4,475 points, more points than any other competitor.
- She can win the title if she gets second as long as Carissa Moore and Caity Simmers do not win.
- If she gets third, Moore must finish fifth and Simmers third.
Carissa Moore
- Moore wins her sixth title with a win at Pipeline.
- She also wins the title with a runner-up finish as long as Picklum doesn’t win.
- She wins the title with a third-place finish as long as Picklum gets third and Simmers doesn’t win. (Remember, Picklum will throw away a better result than Moore.)
Caity Simmers
- Simmers can clinch the title with a win at Pipeline as long as Moore doesn’t make the final.
- If Simmers finishes runner-up she would win the title as long as Moore gets fifth and Picklum gets third.
Gabriela Bryan
- Bryan can win the title with a win at Pipeline as long as Picklum gets third and Moore gets fifth.
Erin Brooks and Sawyer Lindblad
- Brooks and Lindblad are in the same position. If they win Pipe, they need a fifth from Picklum, a ninth from Moore, and a third from Simmers.
Luana Silva
- She wins the title with a win at Pipe as long as Picklum and Simmers get fifth and Moore gets ninth.
