After months of clandestine wheeling and dealing, the ISA released a new version of the LA 2028 qualification system. Not everyone is going to like it. Photo: Tim McKenna//ISA
Yesterday, the International Surfing Association released a revised qualification system for the 2028 Olympics. But the communication was missing one key piece of information…why?
The ISA had put years of thought into the original system, crafting a formula to incentivize the world’s best surfers to compete — and actually try — in ISA events. Something must have forced their hand.
A spokesperson from the ISA acknowledged that it had listened to the athletes’ concerns. But according to sources with knowledge of the negotiations, the ISA only updated the system when the Championship Tour surfers wielded their power, with an added nudge from the International Olympic Committee. After the initial public opposition from CT surfers and the WSL, behind the scenes, the surfers were bargaining with the only leverage they had: to withhold their participation from the ISA’s qualification events.
Yesterday, four months after the ISA released the first iteration of the qualification system, the organization announced the amendments: more spots for CT surfers, a reduction in the country quota, and more CT events that count towards qualification.
However, it’s not a win for all CT surfers. Some will have their Olympic chances significantly reduced under the new rules — a case of “be careful what you wish for.” At the same time, others who had a long shot could now be a shoo-in for the 2028 Games.
Who loses?
Ironically, some of the loudest voices on social media, like Yago Dora and Tyler Wright, will have their Olympic pathways most impeded. The new system increased the number of spots reserved for the Championship Tour from five surfers per gender to eight, but it also reduced the per-country quota from three to two. Now, similar to 2024, the only way to get an “extra” third slot is if your team ranks highest at the 2026 or 2027 World Surfing Games.
The ISA did not change the rule limiting each country to one surfer per gender qualifying through the CT. For the countries with many surfers on the tour — USA, Australia, and Brazil — these new rules reduced the likelihood that they would qualify for LA 2028.
If we take the CT ranking as of today, Yago Dora, ranked third, would be passed over for Alan Cleland, ranked 27th. Carissa Moore, ranked second, would have to give way to Yolanda Hopkins, ranked 20th.
The women’s CT in particular has historically lacked country diversity, making the Olympic qualification system tricky. In 2023, for example, Teresa Bonvalot qualified for the Olympics as one of the eight CT surfers despite competing in only three events as a replacement. The qualification system unveiled in February addressed that issue, but the latest revisions could allow it to resurface.
Of course, surfers like Carissa Moore and Yago Dora who are outside the CT qualification can search for slots at the World Surfing Games or their respective continental qualifiers. But the fight over the remaining slot for their countries just got a lot fiercer.
More CT surfers will qualify directly for the LA 2028 Olympics. But that doesn’t necessarily mean more Championship Tour surfers will ultimately compete in the Games. Photo: Pablo Franco//ISA
Who wins?
While the Americans, Australians, and Brazilians are engaged in a dogfight for two spots, surfers from countries that are not well represented now have a much easier path into the Olympics.
Some surfers who have been struggling on this year’s tour like Alan Cleland (Mexico), Rio Waida (Indonesia), Anat Lelior (Israel), Erin Brooks (Canada), and Yolanda Hopkins (Portugal) would qualify for the Olympics without having to compete at the World Surfing Games or continental qualifiers. Leo Fioravanti, one of the most critical of the changes the ISA introduced in February, could have a cakewalk to LA 2028. (If he keeps leading the tour rankings, he won’t have a problem, anyway.)
Fioravanti and Brooks both expressed their satisfaction with the new edits in messages to The Inertia.
Brooks said she was “thankful” to see the ISA and IOC addressing feedback from the CT surfers. Fioravanti acknowledged that he — and the CT surfers as a whole — had been in communication with the Olympic bodies to “find the best way forward.”
“I’m happy with this change,” Fioravanti said. “I think it’s cool that they were able to realize that five people from the CT weren’t enough”
“It is a bit of a bummer for the countries that have more surfers on tour,” he added. “But at least we’ll have more surfers from the world tour, and that’s a great position to be in.”
How did the ISA and WSL fare?
The ISA had a problem during the last two Olympic cycles: CT surfers were sabotaging their heats — showing up at the World Surfing Games, purposefully losing, or claiming they were sick or injured. Some may have had legitimate claims. Many did not.
The ISA, who spent decades trying to get surfing into the Olympics, a platform that these surfers are now greatly profiting from, was not impressed. The new system for LA 2028 solved those issues. By placing the CT last on the schedule of qualification events, and limiting it to one surfer per country, the CT surfers have every incentive to win the World Surfing Games.
That didn’t change with the last edits. It’s still in the surfers’ best interests to try at the World Surfing Games.
According to our sources, while the WSL was supportive of the athletes in exercising their agency, it was not the driving force that catalyzed the qualification updates. The WSL got six more surfers to the CT quota, and included more CT events in the system. That puts them in a better situation. But maintaining the one-surfer-per-country limit could lead to anticlimactic qualification scenarios, like the Teresa Bonvalot example at Paris 2024.
It’s also possible that there won’t be enough countries represented on the women’s tour in 2027 and 2028, in which case the leftover spots roll over to the World Surfing Games.
The WSL did not respond to requests for comment on the new qualification system, and has not put out any public statements yet.
The ISA cleverly did not post this news to its Instagram page, avoiding a debate in the social media comments. It’s not clear yet what most of the CT surfers think of these changes. But for many, the road to LA 2028 just got a lot harder.
