Russell Bierke at Jaws. Photo: Guille Pozzi//Unsplash
El Niño is here, and it’s getting stronger as the weeks pass by. That’s becoming a consistent message from forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion, a short monthly report of observations and developments regarding El Niño, stayed on that course.
While independent meteorologists and even other climate officials have been sounding the alarm on this El Niño’s potential strength for quite some time, NOAA could be seen as more conservative with its forecasts. It steered clear of hyperbole, so “Super El Niño” and “Godzilla El Niño” aren’t generally in the organization’s vocabulary. And while NOAA alerted us this one could be strong as far back as April, it’s only recently that it has stepped into the territory of saying it almost certainly will be, and it’s sticking around for a long time.
The administration made the official designation that El Niño had fully developed in June. At that time it assigned a 63 percent chance it will develop into a “very strong event.” By July, its forecast had upgraded to an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December.” Thursday’s CPC report escalated things from it’s going to be strong and rank among some historic events to now exceeding the strength of previous historic El Niños.
“There is a 69 percent chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a three-month RONI value),” wrote forecasters. “With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed. In summary, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.”
Photo: NOAA
